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In issue 70, we dive into an Indigenous development in Canada.

publicly.traded Florida’s condo market is facing increasing pressure
industry.chatter The eight major institutional landlords that Parcl Labs tracks were net sellers

Blood in the Water? Florida's Condo Reckoning Looms

For decades, the economics of owning a Florida condominium rested on an implicit bargain. Buyers accepted shared walls, rules set by the homeowners associations and monthly dues in exchange for a relatively carefree lifestyle. Roofs would eventually need replacing, concrete would crack, elevators would wear out, but those costs felt manageable. The monthly assessments would increase at a reasonable rate, and many owners assumed that the financial health of their building was someone else's responsibility.

That bargain is now being rewritten.

Across Florida, condominium owners are confronting a wave of special assessments, sharply higher association dues, rising insurance premiums and stricter structural standards that are fundamentally changing the economics of ownership.

This reckoning was set in motion by the collapse of the 12-story condominium oceanfront tower in Surfside, a suburb of Miami, in June of 2021. Proptext covered this very subject two years ago, when the writing was on the wall.

Now that writing is in bold all cap letters.  

Buildings that once attracted retirees seeking predictable expenses have become sources of profound financial uncertainty. In some communities, owners who planned to spend their retirement overlooking the water now find themselves facing repair bills that rival the price of a new home. 

Reporting from outlets such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have documented cases of owners receiving assessments exceeding $100,000, forcing some to sell at steep discounts or take on unexpected debt.

Response to a Deadly Collapse

In the aftermath of the Champlain Towers South collapse, which killed 98 people, Florida lawmakers enacted reforms requiring older condominium associations to complete structural integrity inspections, commission reserve studies and adequately fund future maintenance. The legislation — known as Senate Bill 4-D — mandates milestone inspections for buildings over a certain age and requires associations to maintain sufficient reserves for major repairs. 

The need to make the state’s older condo buildings is not in dispute. Yet the legislation has done more than impose new standards; It has forced thousands of associations to confront decades of deferred maintenance and chronic underfunding that ignored the shaky foundation of the state's real estate market.

Miami-Dade County revisited its building recertification program in the wake of the collapse, and building codes were updated as well. Buildings with four or more stories must now be inspected by a structural engineer with experience on that specific type of building. 

Older buildings that once appeared affordable are now facing substantial future liabilities. Owners who purchased units believing their monthly carrying costs were manageable are discovering that low association dues often reflected postponed expenses rather than efficient management. 

According to data compiled by Redfin, condo listings in parts of South Florida have surged while prices have softened, particularly for older buildings facing large assessments, which can reach tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Rising Insurance Costs Contribute to the Problem

Insurance costs are compounding the pressure. Florida’s property insurance market has been under strain for years because of hurricane risk, litigation and insurer insolvencies. Premiums for condominium associations have risen sharply, in some cases doubling or tripling over a short period. 

The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation has documented significant rate increases across the state, particularly for coastal properties. These rising costs are passed directly to unit owners through higher monthly dues, further eroding affordability and increasing the financial burden on residents.

Viewed from one perspective, Florida's condominium market is experiencing exactly what policymakers intended. Buildings are becoming safer, reserve funds are becoming more transparent, and buyers have access to significantly more information about the financial condition of a property before they purchase. The reforms are correcting structural weaknesses that had developed over decades. 

Academic research on housing markets has long emphasized the importance of transparency and proper maintenance funding in preserving long-term property values. Yet every correction creates winners and losers, and the transition itself is proving extraordinarily disruptive.

The disruption is also reshaping buyer behavior. Real estate agents across South Florida report that prospective buyers are increasingly scrutinizing association financials, reserve studies, and inspection reports before making offers. Lenders, too, are tightening standards, sometimes declining to finance units in buildings that fail to meet reserve requirements or have pending structural issues. 

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have issued guidance limiting loans for properties with significant deferred maintenance concerns, further constraining demand. As a result, liquidity in certain segments of the condo market has deteriorated, particularly for older buildings that have not yet completed required upgrades.

An Opportunity for Investors, or a Red Flag

For investors, the disruption raises a more complicated question. Financial markets have long rewarded those willing to purchase assets during periods of maximum pessimism, but history also demonstrates that declining prices alone do not create value. Sometimes assets become inexpensive because they deserve to be. 

At other times, prices fall because uncertainty makes buyers unwilling to distinguish between fundamentally different properties. Florida's condominium market increasingly appears to contain both phenomena simultaneously. Some buildings may represent genuine value traps, burdened by years of neglected maintenance and mounting costs. Others may simply be caught in a broader wave of fear that is treating every older condominium as though it carries the same risks.

There are early signs of both dynamics at play. In certain coastal markets, distressed sales are increasing as owners seek to exit before major assessments come due. At the same time, well-capitalized buyers are beginning to explore acquisitions in buildings that have already completed repairs and funded reserves. 

Historical parallels can be drawn to other periods of market dislocation, such as the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, when distressed real estate assets eventually attracted significant institutional capital once uncertainty began to clear.

That distinction may ultimately determine whether the current correction is remembered simply as an overdue repricing of aging buildings or as one of the most significant contrarian investment opportunities in American residential real estate since the financial crisis. The answer will depend not only on how far prices fall, but on whether buyers learn to separate buildings that have merely become expensive to own from those whose underlying economics have been permanently impaired.

Florida’s condominium market sits at an inflection point. The reforms triggered by Surfside are forcing a long-delayed reckoning with the true cost of maintaining aging buildings in a challenging climate. 

Whether that reckoning ultimately restores confidence — or permanently reshapes the market — will depend on how quickly transparency replaces uncertainty, and whether buyers and investors can navigate the complex landscape that has emerged in its wake.

More than six million American homeowners do not have any insurance on what for many is their most valuable asset. Researchers from the Consumer Federation of America (CFA) reported that about one in seven homeowners in the United States, about 14.4 percent of all households, have no homeowners insurance. Approximately 12.2 million of 86.6 million owner-occupied homes are uninsured. Some 11 percent of Black homeowners lacked coverage, and for Hispanic homeowners, the figure hit 14 percent. For Native American homeowners, the number reached 22 percent, though the researchers said data limitations make this figure difficult to interpret and require further research. White homeowners were uninsured at a rate of just 6 percent, and Asian American and Pacific Islander homeowners were at 5 percent. Clearly, there is an economic decision associated with declining to insure a home: some 15% of homeowners earning less than $50,000 a year do not have insurance.

The eight major institutional landlords that Parcl Labs tracks were net sellers of 3,011 single-family homes in Q2 of 2026, more than five times the 593 homes they sold off in the same quarter a year ago. Those large players in the market include Invitation Homes (87,483 properties), Progress Residential (85,022), AMH (56,020), FirstKey Homes (46,849), Amherst (43,669) and Tricon Residential (39,042). According to an article in Fast Company, several factors played a role in the selloff: The federal push to ban institutional home buying; The numbers don’t work the way they used to and it’s harder for institutional investors to find the yields they’d like to justify investment; Build-to-rent deliveries have fallen off from their peak. (Invitation Homes said earlier this year the pullback in BTR deals is tied to its “cost of capital” right now.)

New York state residents have a handy tool to look up what a property at a particular address sold for through a database built by The Democrat and Chronicle, the Rochester, NY-based newspaper. Sale prices are also available on sites like Zillow, Realtor.com and Redfin, but that requires more than a click or two. In California, which is a “nondisclosure state” — which means sale prices are not always publicized by listing services — the official record is the transfer tax noted on the deed, which can be searched in public records kept by county and town clerks. To search specific sold property prices, public records are maintained at the local level — use your county or state's official property records and GIS mapping sites. For a directory of official local resources, visit the USAGov Local Governments directory. 

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